Như Nhân Chủ đã giúp quí độc giả về những khái niệm và nguyên lý căn bản của tài chính (TIỀN) và những vận hành căn bản của nó trong nền kinh tế, dù là thị trường “tự do” hay trong xã hội độc tài toàn trị. Những căn bản thực tế của thực trạng đời sống mà sách vở giáo dục chính qui” đã cố tình viết sai lạc với những thuật ngữ phù thủy đao to búa lớn nhằm rối trí quần chúng để phó mặc cho bọn “chuyên gia” tung hoành.

Để trắc nghiệm những hiểu biết căn bản này, những hiểu biết không cần “trường học”, không thể có ở trường học chính qui, nhưng đầy dẫy trong TRƯỜNG ĐỜI THỰC TIỄN của mỗi cá nhân chúng ta, chúng ta hành xử tương tác từng ngày trong đó, nhưng không mấy ai quan tâm vì đã phó mặc cho sách vở và chuyên gia nghĩ thay cho chúng ta, Nhân chủ xin đăng tải hai (2) bản tin kinh tế tài chính để quí vị tự thử nghiệm hiểu biết của mình. Và xem những điểm gì vô lý không ăn khớp trong đời sống bình thường.

1- Bản tin thứ nhất tường thuật 590 tỉ Mỹ kim ($590,000,000,000  biến mất trong 1 ngày – Quí vị nghĩ xem tại sao, qua tiến trình nào mà cứ hàng trăm hàng chục tỉ bỗng dưng bốc hơi biến mất trong chốc lát! Số tiền mà 99% nhân loại không thể đạt được dù sống 1000 kiếp người!!!

2- Bản tường trình thứ 2, nói về “trị giá  tài sản” hai ngàn tỉ rưỡi (2.5 trillions) 2,500,000,000,000 cũng vừa biến mất!!! Tại sao? và như thế nào số tiền cực lớn này biến mất?

Cần nhớ trị giá Tổng Sản Lượng của cả nước Việt Nam trong một năm chỉ có khoảng 170-180 tỉ tiền tươi Mỹ kim, không tính theo trị giá thương mãi lực tương đương (PPP).

GỢI Ý:

TIỀN là gì? Tại sao tờ giấy mầu nhà nước độc quyền in từ cõi không lại có “giá trị”, giá trị này ở đâu ra? Tại sao các nước chậm tiến lạc hậu càng in càng lạm phát- Trong khi các nước chính của Âu Mỹ Úc, vẫn in nhiều nhưng lạm phát chỉ tăng theo căn bản. Đặc biệt Mỹ càng in ra nhiều (QE), trị giá càng tăng trên thị trường hối đoái?

Tại sao, trước khi khối cộng sản Sô Viết sụp đổ và các nước cộng sản khi chưa bị “mở cửa hay đổi mới- Ngân hàng nhà nước Liên Sô cũng in tiền soành soạch mà lạm phát ít, giá trị đồng “Rúp” vẫn cao, nền kinh tế khá vững và khoa học kỹ thuật phát triển bao bọc cho cả khối Comecon The Council for Mutual Economic Assistance.. Trong khi đó Viêt Nam, Trung Quốc cũng cùng hệ thống bài bản kế ngân hàng nhà nước trung ương, kế hoạch ngũ niên v.v theo sách vở “cộng sản” nhưng lại trì trệ và lạm phát phi mã và phải ĐỔI TIỀN gần như liên tục? Tại sao giữa các xã hội cùng hệ thống như TQ và VN, thì TQ vẫn luôn vượt trội hơn về mọi lãnh vực?

Tại sao giá dầu thô giảm thấp, (từ 150 mỹ kim/thùng xuống hiện nay là 30$/thùng- mức bơm dầu thô “tăng” tràn ngập…nhưng giá xăng dầu cho nhu cầu vận chuyển của quần chúng vẫn không xuống -vẫn cao?

Cuối cùng, tại sao Vàng và đồng Bitcoin, không do nhà nước chính phủ nào “in ra”, riêng Bitcoin- không “được” nhà nước chính phủ nào chính thức công nhận, không ai “làm ra”, không ai quản chế, quản trị , kiểm soát.. nhưng lưu hành với trị giá cao, bất chấp những tin đồn thổi hù dọa về bản thân Bitcoin từ chính qui nhà nước?

Đây là những vấn đề ảnh hưởng trực tiếp sát da sát thịt hàng ngày của chính bản thân chúng ta, ngay cả trong giấc ngủ, không ngưng nghỉ. Chính bản thân mỗi chúng ta tham gia  hành xử tác động từng giây. Chúng ta là nạn nhân hay thụ nhận thường trực như lẽ sinh tồn căn bản! Và chúng ta hiều về những vấn đề của chính chúng ta thật nền tảng này, bao nhiêu?


Tùy tầm của mỗi quí vị để kết luận.

Nhân Chủ

===

Published January 06, 2016

$590 Billion…Gone in a Day

 

Oil just hit a fresh 11-year low.
The price of oil dropped 6% today. It’s now down 68% since peaking in June 2014. Oil hasn’t been this cheap since February 2004.
Dispatch readers know the world has too much oil right now. “Fracking” and other new technologies have unlocked tens of billions of barrels of oil that used to be impossible to extract. U.S. oil production is at a 30-year high, and the U.S. is now the world’s largest oil producer.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil reserves of developed nations reached a record high of almost 3 billion barrels in September.
•  OPEC is also pumping record amounts of oil…
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a cartel of Middle Eastern countries, produces 40% of the world’s oil. Until recently, OPEC limited its oil production to keep prices high.
But last month, OPEC abandoned its production limit of 30 million barrels per day (bpd). According to Bloomberg Business, investment bank Goldman Sachs (GS) expects OPEC to pump 32 million bpd this year. That would be a new record.
The economies of OPEC nations depend on oil. For example, crude oil accounts for 83% of Saudi Arabia’s exports. And it makes up 68% of Iran’s exports. These countries must keep pumping oil…even with prices at 11-year lows.
•  Shares of major oil companies dropped…
ExxonMobil (XOM), the largest U.S. oil company, fell 0.8%. Chevron (CVX), the second biggest U.S. oil company, dropped 4%.
Oil services companies, which sell “picks and shovels” to the industry, also tanked. The Market Vectors Services ETF (OIH), the largest U.S. oil services ETF, fell nearly 4.5%.
Eventually, this cycle will end with absurdly low prices for oil stocks. We’ll get an amazing opportunity to buy oil stocks at fire sale prices. But, for now, the world is simply pumping too much oil. We’re staying away.
•  Energy is just one sector that’s struggling…
If you’ve been reading the Dispatch this week, you know U.S. stocks have had a horrible start to the year. The S&P 500 fell 1.5% on Monday, its biggest year-opening drop since 2001.
Today, U.S. stocks slid again. The S&P fell 1.3% to its lowest level in nearly three months.
Foreign stocks have sold off too. The Japanese Nikkei 225 fell 1% today…and the Euro STOXX 600, which tracks 600 of Europe’s largest stocks, fell 1.3%.
•  Emerging market stocks are hitting new lows…
The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) plunged 1.9% today, and is down 4.4% this year. That follows a 16% decline last year, its third losing year in a row. Emerging market stocks are now at their lowest level since 2009, when the world was in a financial crisis.
•  And Chinese stocks are off to their worst start ever…
The Shanghai Composite Index tanked 6.9% on Monday. The crash erased $590 billion in value from Chinese stocks. China’s stock market is the second largest in the world, behind only the U.S.’s.
The selloff triggered China’s new “circuit breaker” rules, which automatically suspend trading for the rest of the day. The Chinese government put these rules in place to prevent panic when stocks crash. But, like most government rules, they do more harm than good.
Here’s Bloomberg:

While the maneuvers may stabilize the market temporarily, they’re unnecessary because intervention creates price distortions and fosters moral hazard as traders come to view the government as a backstop for shares, according to UBS Wealth Management, Henderson Global Investors and Wells Fargo Funds Management.

Many investors also expect Chinese officials to extend the ban on short selling (betting that a stock will fall). Chinese regulators banned short selling over the summer, and the ban is set to end on Friday.
Chinese stocks are extremely volatile. They have huge booms and huge busts. If you prefer safe, steady investments, don’t buy Chinese stocks.
If you do invest in Chinese stocks, use stop-losses. A stop-loss is a predetermined point at which you’ll sell a stock if it declines. Using a stop-loss will allow you to make money while a stock is rising…then automatically sell when the uptrend ends. It allows you to speculate in volatile stocks without risking huge losses.
•  With stocks around the world falling…
We recommend owning a significant amount of physical cash and physical gold. And to avoid major losses, we suggest selling any stocks that are expensive or vulnerable to an economic downturn.
Holding a significant amount of cash will ensure you can buy stocks next time they’re cheap. And physical gold is wealth insurance. It has protected wealth through stock market collapses, economic depressions, and full-blown currency crises.
If you’re interested in other proven strategies to protect your money from a bear market, watch this free video we put together.

Chart of the Day

Emerging market stocks just hit a six-year low.
Today’s chart shows the performance of the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), the second-biggest emerging market ETF. As we mentioned earlier, EEM has dropped to lows not seen since the global financial crisis of 2008-9.
Yesterday, Financial Times explained why emerging markets stocks could drop even further…

The emerging markets-focused investment bank [Renaissance Capital] predicts that 17 of the 36 EM countries it covers are likely to be downgraded by at least one of Moody’s, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch in the next 12 months.
Such a tally would comfortably exceed the joint record of 11 sovereign downgrades in 2008, 2012 and 2013.

Credit agencies like Moody’s (MCO) and Fitch downgrade countries whose financial health is worsening. If Renaissance Capital is right about the record amount of defaults coming this year, emerging market stocks will likely take another big leg down.

Regards,
Justin Spittler
Delray Beach, Florida
January 06, 2016

 

Published January 07, 2016

$2.5 Trillion in Wealth Has Vanished since Monday

 

The financial markets are in chaos…
Chinese stocks crashed again last night, dropping 7% in less than an hour. The Shanghai Composite Index is now down 11.7% this week, and 40% since peaking last June.
For the second time this week, China’s stock exchange completely shut down. As Dispatch readers know, China put new “circuit breaker” rules in place that shut down the exchange if stocks drop too quickly. Last night, the exchange was only open for 29 minutes before a flood of selling shut it down.
The plunge in Chinese stocks set the tone for a horrible day in global markets. The S&P 500 plunged 2.4% today, and is now down 5% on the year. The Euro Stoxx 600, which tracks 600 of Europe’s biggest stocks, is down 6.4% this year. The Japanese Nikkei 225 is down 6.7%.
In the first three trading days of 2016, global stocks have lost $2.5 trillion in value.
•  Commodity prices are also plunging…
Yesterday, oil plummeted 6%. Today, it fell another 2.3% to its lowest level since February 2004. Oil is now down 69% since June 2014.
Coffee dropped 6.8% today…lumber dropped 3.9%…and copper dropped 3.2%.
•  George Soros believes this is the beginning of a major crisis…
Soros is one of the greatest traders of all time. From 1969 to 2011, he generated an average annual return of 20%…nearly double the S&P’s average return of 11%. He’s famous for making $1 billion on a single trade that “broke” the Bank of England in 1992.
At a conference today, Soros warned:

I would say it amounts to a crisis. When I look at the financial markets there is a serious challenge which reminds me of the crisis we had in 2008.

The S&P 500 plunged 57% during the 2008 financial crisis.
•  If you’ve been reading the Dispatch lately, you know we agree with Soros…
We’ve been warning for months that stocks are at risk of a big drop. The bull market in U.S. stocks is nearly 83 months old, or 33 months longer than the average bull market since World War II.
And since March 2009, the S&P 500 has gained 191%, far higher than the average gain of 136% of U.S. bull markets going back to 1932.
U.S. stocks are also expensive. According to the popular CAPE ratio, stocks in the S&P 500 are 48% more expensive than their historic average.
Old age and high valuations don’t guarantee that stocks will fall. But all bull markets turn into bear markets eventually. And when stocks are expensive, they have more room to fall when the market turns down. It’s like the old saying, “the bigger they are, the harder they fall.”
Even an average bear market would be extremely painful. As financial website The Reformed Broker reported yesterday, the average cyclical bull market over the last century has ended with a 37% drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
We think there’s much more downside than upside in U.S. stocks today. We suggest avoiding expensive stocks and companies that will struggle to make money during an economic downturn.
•  E.B. Tucker, Editor of The Casey Report, called the end of the bull market in early September…
The issue was titled “R.I.P. 2009 – 2015 Bull Market.”
E.B’s call has been dead-on. The S&P has lost 1% since September, as you can see in this chart.

•  Gold spiked to a two-month high today…
Gold jumped 1.3% today to its highest level since November. It’s now up 6% on the year. Silver also spiked 2.7%, to $14.35/oz.
Investors typically buy gold (and silver) when they sense financial danger. That’s because gold has preserved wealth through economic depressions, stock market crashes, and every other kind of crisis. It’s the ultimate form of wealth insurance.
•  We recommend owning a significant amount of physical gold today…
Instead of putting a large amount of your wealth in stocks, own a significant allocation of physical gold.
We also suggest stockpiling cash. Stockpiling cash will give you “ammo” for the next opportunity to buy stocks at bargain prices.
As Dispatch readers know, we’ve been preparing for a bear market for months. You can learn our favorite strategies for protecting and growing your money during a bear market by watching this free video.

Chart of the Day

Gold is doing its job…
Today’s chart shows the performance of gold versus the S&P 500 this year. Although the year just started, gold is doing its part as a “safe haven” asset while global stock markets sell off.
If you agree with us that stocks are at risk of a big drop, owning gold is the number one way to protect your money.

Regards,
Justin Spittler
Delray Beach, Florida
January 07, 2016

Advertisements