Sự kiện vài ngàn tỉ mỹ kim “bốc hơi” trong vài giờ của nền kinh tế chứng khoán mà Trung Quốc không phải là chuyện lạ hay bất ngờ. Nó là hệ quả tất yếu của nền kinh tế nói theo kiểu chữ nghĩa phương Tây là “bong bóng” hay hệ thống móc túi chuyền tay “Ponzi Scheme” học từ Âu Mỹ.

Âu Mỹ từng khủng hoảng nhiều lần, lớn nhất là năm 1929, mở ngõ cho thế chiến. Và vừa mới đây 2008 với việc “ngân hàng trung ương Mỹ” in 16 ngàn tỉ phân phát để thổi phồng chứng khoán các giấy nợ (mortgage) đặc biêt kỹ nghệ nhà đất.

Riêng tại Trung Quốc, nền kinh tế “lắp ráp làm thuê” (workshop) do Âu Mỹ đưa vào sau khi “mở cửa” và trở thành một nền kinh tế lệ thuộc quá lớn vào đầu tư đặt hàng từ bên ngoài (captive economy). Trung quốc chỉ có một lợi điểm là nhà nước Đảng trực tiếp điều khiển ngân hàng trung ương, và đây cũng là “hại điểm tán mạng” khi nhà nước hồ hởi in tiền khuyến khích các công ty vay mượn để đầu tư xây cất, và nhập khẩu xa xỉ và toàn dân mua “chứng khoán” của các “tăng trưởng kinh tế” này, một loại thị trường của “toàn dân làm giầu” qua việc dò đoán thổi phồng giá cả lừa đảo lẫn nhau mà không sản xuất sản phẩm gì hết. Khi các công trình nhà đất, 60 triệu căn nhà chung cư, với những thành phố xây xong bỏ trống, hàng ngàn các cây cầu hoành tráng, hàng trăm các phi trường mỹ lệ v.v tất cả  không trực tiếp giúp kinh tế sản xuất v.v. Khi không mua bán hay thuê mướn để đẻ ra lãi cho “cổ đông” … thì tất cả mất toi.. và nhà nước trung ương chỉ mất công in giấy mực … thành “nhân dân tệ”!!! (The whole thing is a giant punt—from 60 million empty high rise apartments, to ghost cities and malls, to endless bridges, highways and airports to nowhere, to laying down more cement in three years than the US did during the entire 20th century.. Một nền kinh tế “cho thuê” theo rập khuôn tư bản Âu Mỹ- thuê đất đai, nhà cửa, thuê tiền-(cho vay lấy lời).

Theo David Stockman, cựu quan chức cao cấp tài chính kinh tế của Reagan, đồng thời với Paul Craig Roberts, cho biết, thì tổng số các công dân đổ tiền vào “sòng bài chứng khoán” như chơi tài xĩu, bằng tổng dân số của Nhật, Thái, Mã và Hàn!!! 258 triệu trương mục chứng khoán!!! (There are more trading accounts in their red casinos than there are people in Japan, Korea, Thailand and Malaysia, combined!.)
Đó là chủ của 3.5 ngàn tỉ “bốc hơi” tuần qua!

Hiện nay tổng số các “giấy tiền” trao đổi qua “sổ sách” chứng khoán của thế giới đã lên gần 2 triệu ngàn tỉ (ước lượng mới nhất là 1.7 triệu ngàn tỉ (quadrillion) 1,700,000,000,000,000. Con số “giấy tiền” này, nói theo kiểu Việt Nam là “đếm cua trong lỗ”, nghĩa là nó chỉ còn giá trị khi các (công ty, công nhân) người nợ còn tồn tại SẼ LÀM RA SẢN PHẨM HÀNG HÓA, dể bảo chứng GIÁ TRỊ  giấy tiền (chứng khoán-shares) và tiền giấy (fiat money).

Khi các “công trình nhà đất, con nợ không thành công, thì cái số “chứng khoán” này trở về là …tờ giấy! Với con số giá trị đã bốc hơi!

Những đứa có máu “dân tộc ghét Tầu, như đám con dân “đậu phọng đỏ”, và nhất là đám ngụy ngục chống cộng thờ Mỹ thánh hóa “chủ nghĩa tư bản” tại  hải ngoại,  đang khoái trá với sự kiện khủng hoảng này … “của kẻ thù dân tộc”, của “cộng sản”… Khoan mừng vội, cần nhớ rằng Tầu gặp tai nạn chỉ là học theo Mỹ, làm tư bản kiểu Mỹ thôi- và đây chỉ là một phần nhỏ của những gì đã xảy ra tại nhà bậc “thầy” Mỹ năm 2008… Nó ..đang chuẩn bị xảy ra nữa khi nền kinh tế chiến tranh của Mỹ tại các cuộc chiến Trung Đông và “nỗi đe dọa biển Đông” không kiếm được đủ lãi trong buôn bán vũ khí …để bù lấp cho những công việc sản xuất đã “toàn cầu hóa” sang các xứ lao động rẻ.- và  khi giới sinh viên ra trường với số nợ ngập đầu nhưng không tìm được việc làm đủ lương để trả nợ lại cho các “chứng khoán”.

Đây mới chỉ nói đến hai nền kinh tế lớn: Mỹ và Tầu, một hệ thống kiểu chơi, khoác hai cái áo mầu khác nhau thôi.

Toàn thế giới, sản phẩm thật đi từ giới công nhân, quần chúng tiêu thụ đang bị bóp nghẽn bởi một tập đoàn thiểu số nắm nguồn tiền giấy. Mọi mặt sản xuất gần như hoàn toàn lệ thuộc sự “cắt đặt đầu tư” của thiểu số tài phiệt qua tờ “tiền giấy pháp quyền” (fiat) và “giấy tiền” (chứng khoán).. Hệ quả là tổng số “giấy tiền” và “tiền giấy” tràn ngập vượt quá gấp bội tổng số lượng sản phẩm của công nhân, nông gia,  hãng xưởng thế giới sản xuất để “chứng” và “khoán cho các loại “giấy” này! (cứ nhìn Hy Lạp là hiểu ra)…Nghĩa là quần chúng, công nhân vừa bị lạm phát lương thấp giá cả cao, nhất là giá nhà cửa- 1/3 lương bị chi vào tiền thuê mướn trả nợ nhà đất) khiến các ngành sản xuất tiêu thụ cũng ngưng trệ vì quần chúng, công nhân – giới tiêu thụ đa số – không dư giả để mua sắm.. Sản phẩm dịch vụ co thắt trong khi “máy điện toán” in tiền cứ nhấn, chứng khoán cứ thổi phồng hô hoán dự đoán thành công với những con số tưởng tượng của cơ quan báo chí chính qui!  Khủng hoảng không xảy ra mới là chuyện lạ, phải nói là “phép lạ” mới đúng!

Thành ngữ có nói “Xây nhà trên cát”. Thế kỷ này nên lập thành ngữ mới: “Xây dựng xã hội ấm no trên giấy chứng khoán” và “tiền ra như nước” nên dùng hình tượng mới của thế kỷ “tiền ra như cửa ngân hàng trung ương”!

Tất cả hãy cầu nguyện cho phép lạ này!

Nhân Chủ
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Wall Street Still Didn’t Get The Memo—–China’s Done, Tops In!

By David Stockman

Bubblevision’s Scott Wapner nearly split a neck vessel today denouncing the US stock market sell-off. It was completely unwarranted, he thundered, because China don’t have nothin’ to do with anything.
Why, insisted CNBC’s best dressed pom-pom boy, China’s stock market has never been correlated with its economy, and, anyhow, its economy doesn’t matter all that much to the S&P 500 because China accounts for only 14% of global GDP.
Besides that, China’s stock market is exactly like what Yogi Berra said about his favorite restaurant: It’s so crowded, nobody goes there anymore!
That is, according to the talking heads Chinese household’s don’t go to the bourses, either. Few of them own stock and equities account for only 20% of household wealth compared to upwards of 65% in the US.
So enough of the schwitzing about the red chip sideshow. Buy the dip!
Indeed, that’s exactly what the insentient robo-traders did at the close. After banging the 200DMA, they bid the S&P right back-up to Monday’s VWAP (volume weighted average price) in the final seconds, thereby filling-up their sell buckets to unload on tomorrow’s dip buyers. As Zero Hedge noted,

On the day, US equities staged their standard JPY ignited momo bounce off the 200DMA – running perfectly to VWAP in the S&P, before limping lower…and a mini algo meltup to VWAP at the close… all completely human!!


As for purportedly sentient humans, however, the better advice would be to flee the dip with all due haste. The truth is, China is not a sideshow; its the radioactive core of the entire global bubble.
Needless to day, the Wall Street shills and touts are so oblivious to this fundamental reality that they can not even see the obvious facts about China—-to say nothing of the macro-quick sand upon which the entire global economy is poised.
The meme of the day—–that China doesn’t have so many gamblers—-is hilarious. From stem to stern, China’s version of red capitalism has evolved into the greatest gambling den in history. The whole thing is a giant punt—from 60 million empty high rise apartments, to ghost cities and malls, to endless bridges, highways and airports to nowhere, to laying down more cement in three years than the US did during the entire 20th century.
But today’s Wall Street admonition to move along because there is nothing to see in the plunging red bourses really takes the cake. In fact, yesterday’s 8.5% plunge on the Shanghai market—–mostly in the last hour and in the face of $1 trillion of state buying power and several thousand paddy wagons thrown at sellers, malicious or otherwise—-is merely a foreshock; it’s a fateful warning about the global-scale financial temblors heading at the incorrigible army of dip buyers in New York, London and their farm teams elsewhere.
In the first place, upwards of 90 million households are in the Chinese stock market, most of them buried under margin debt. Among them, they hold exactly 258 million trading accounts and a significant fraction of these were opened in just the past year by Chinese pig farmers, bus drivers and banana vendors, among millions of quasi-literate others.
The country went nuts speculating in stocks just like it has in empty apartments, coal mines, expensive watches, Macau slot machines, fine wines, copper stockpiles, and almost anything else that can be bought and sold. So when the Beijing overlords go into full panic mode about the stock market plunge, they actually have a reason: There are more trading accounts in their red casinos than there are people in Japan, Korea, Thailand and Malaysia, combined!.
Credit Suisse stock trading accounts China.
Do they fear the wrath of the tens of million of newly affluent Chinese that they have lured into the stock market? Yes they do, and for good reason. Namely, if the stock market comes crashing back to earth—–then what is at stake is not merely several trillion in paper wealth, but the essential credibility of the regime itself.
After all, even in China’s fevered gambling halls the people would surely notice the $7 trillion elephant missing from the room, and wonder about its implications for the rest of the Beijing Ponzi. That is to say, at its June 13 peak the Shanghai index was trading at 70X the reported LTM earnings of its constituent companies. Were these nosebleed valuations  to be re-rated to a merely bubbly 30X, the Shanghai index would plunge back to its level of one year ago, vaporizing the aforementioned $7 trillion in the process.
^SSEA ChartThe truth is, the Chinese stock market is not even worth 30X because the entire Ponzi is unraveling. The Chinese economy is bloated with monumental malinvestments and stupendous excesses—–the likes of which have never previously been visited upon a modern industrial economy.
Accordingly, while it is impossible to gauge the magnitude and timing of the hard landing now imminent, one thing is certain. Namely, the virtual impossibility that an economy flushed with a helter-skelter debt expansion from $2 trillion to $28 trillion in just 14 years—-especially one that has no rule of contract law or even semblance of honest capital markets—- can avoid a thundering deflationary collapse.
Stated differently, profits have already nearly vanished in upstream sectors like coal, steel, aluminum and cement; are now eroding in shipbuilding, construction equipment, solar equipment, and other capital goods; and will soon be falling in overbuilt consumer industries, especially, automobiles, as well. Like Japan in the mid-1990s, China is heading for an era of profitless deflation as its credit binge comes to an end.
In short, China’s companies are not worth last July’s stock market valuation, let alone their current perilous perch. And that’s where the skunk in the woodpile comes in. The Beijing suzerains have shot their wad. They cannot afford to pump more fiat credit into the stock market, meaning that the only remaining recourse is to arrest the sellers as enemies of the state.

Needless to say, red capitalism is not the same as Mao’s red socialism. The latter held that power comes from the barrel of a gun, and if push-came-to-shove, full jails and energetic firing squads could enforce the regime. Indeed, even after Mao foolishly denuded the countryside of insect-eating birds and farm implements during the Great Leap Forward, the regime handily survived 40 million deaths from the resulting famines.
But since the time of Mr. Deng, the power of the Chinese communist party has come from the end of a printing press, and for all practical purposes the People’s Printing Press is out of business. That because China is now imperiled by massive capital flight.
During the last five quarters its external accounts have hemorrhaged upwards of $800 billion of private capital outflows. That staggering figure represents the the sum of its current account surpluses plus its drawdown of official reserve assets. Stated differently, had China’s $400 billion of current account surpluses been added to its reserves during that period, its reserve balance would total $4.5 trillion, not $3.7 trillion. The difference is a massive stampede of hot capital, as depicted in the chart below.


So here’s the thing. A regime that lives by the printing press is consigned to eventually dying by it.  Accordingly, Beijing cannot open up the credit spigot again without further exacerbating its torrid capital flight.
So the only tool left to prop-up the red casinos is Beijing’s enormous fleet of paddy wagons.  But with 258 million trading accounts in place, it is doubtful that even Beijing can arrest the sellers fast enough to forestall the stock market plunge still ahead.
As the communist oligarchs desperately hop from increasingly gimmicky stimulus ploys to the mailed fist of economic repression, one thing is quite predictable. Even its phony numbers machine will not much longer be able to hide the fact that the Chinese economy is grinding to a halt, and that the miracle of red capitalism was never remotely what Wall Street cracked it up to be.
Here’s the thing. Between the 2007 pre-crisis peak and 2014, the estimated world GDP expanded from $53 trillion to about $69 trillion. But fully 33% of that $17 trillion gain was directly accounted for by China; and far more than half of the total is actually attributable when the multiplier effect on resource suppliers like Australia, Brazil and Canada is accounted for, and when the pull effect on intermediate component suppliers like south Korea, Malaysia, Japan and Taiwan is added to the brew.
That’s not 14%. The collapse of red capitalism in China is exporting gale force deflation to the global economy, meaning that the already evident rollover of world trade is just beginning its descent.

So S&P profits are not immune, not by a longshot. One of these days, perhaps soon, even Scott Wapner will get the memo.

Credit Markets have Melted Overnight. Derivatives are a $1 Quadrillion “Ticking Time Bomb”

Global Research, May 13, 2015
The Budget Crisis, Treasury Bonds and the US Dollar: Breakdown of the Global Economic, Financial and Monetary System
That didn’t take long did it?  I of course am speaking of the second overnight and global meltdown of the credit markets …in the last four business days!  Before getting into this topic which I believe will soon be seen in retrospect and by historians far into the future as “THE” trigger event.  
Just as we saw last Wed. night/Thurs. wee hours, credit markets again melted down overnight.  The following charts clearly illustrate this.
Bonds…
 Charts: Bloomberg
  …But wait, just as last Thursday, credit again reversed so, …no harm no foul?
It is so important you understand “what” is happening and have an idea of “why”.  Let me tackle the what part first,  We are witnessing sovereign bonds and their yields move in wider standard deviations than most commodities ever do.  When you hear the word “commodity” you should think “risky risky” because they have wild moves limit up and limit down, it’s the way the game is played and should be expected.
Sovereign notes and bonds are (were) the opposite.  They are THE bedrock of the entire financial system.  They are “supposed to be safe”.  They are supposed to be for widows and orphans.  Sovereign credits are THE core to nearly all retirement funds on the planet.  If everything else fails, it is this sector, government bonds, which should stand tall and stave off the failure of retirement plans.  The action over the last week is anything but bedrock or “stable”, in fact, it is volatility in the bond markets that are endangering everything financial, suffice it to say “a foundation of BAD credit is not foundation at all”!
The next question is “why”.  For laughs I guess I should point out the explanation of a guest moron on CNBC.  He claims that yields on European bonds are rising because their economy is turning up.  He went on to actually say these spikes in yields (drop in prices) are actually a very good thing because they provide “proof” of future growth.  Never mind all of this debt is held as collateral for everything else, lower bond prices are “good” when too much debt is the problem in the first place?
I would ask if he has even heard of a little country named Greece?
Is it even possible that eurobonds are being sold because fear of a Greek default?
Is the fear of a default cascade the reason bonds are being dumped in wholesale batches?  I have heard the explanation that “net issuance” has again gone positive as the reason for these air pockets.  Maybe this is true, I do not think so but if it is then there is a very real problem!  If this is true, it means the market cannot absorb the issuance and yields are going higher not by design but because there are simply not enough buyers, an “uh oh moment” so to speak.
I have a little different theory which if not so now, or “yet”, it will be soon!
I believe much of the bond market weakness is being caused (and saved) by OTC derivatives.  I believe and have said multiple time before, “someone(s) out there is already dead”.  I believe that “bankrupts” are strewn all over the place and have been hidden with overnight loans… but there is a new problem.  The recent volatility has created more and more losers …which creates more and more FORCED SALES!  (Please don’t scoff at this as there are a handful of “choice” firms who have not had a single day of trading losses in over four years, with a whole string of losers in their wake? )
You see, for all intents and purposes we have lived through a global bull market in bonds since 1982.  This has culminated in negative interest rates and we ended up with everyone on the same side of the boat with no one left to “buy”.  Of course you could ask the question “why would anyone buy?” with zero or even negative interest rates.  Only a few of the “sane ones” out there have asked this question until now, it seems maybe a few of the insane may be regaining at least some sense of sanity!?
As I did yesterday, I will repeat “why” all of this is important.  “Credit” is what our entire system is based upon.  It has become the basis for all paper wealth and the lubricant for all real economic activity.  Should credit collapse (it will), everything we have come to believe in (been fooled by) will change.  Credit has come to be viewed as “wealth”, it is considered an “asset”… with just one problem, it is neither!  Credit is only an asset and can be considered wealth as long as the borrower “can pay”.
And herein lies the rub, Greece cannot pay which means the holders of Greek debt (along with issuers of CDS) cannot pay and so on.  It is not just Greece of course, it is the entire Western world, it just happens that Greece is first because they lied the most with the help of Goldman Sachs and other “benefactors”.  If counterparty risk did not matter, there would be no problem.  The reality is this, the whole show from single dollar bills to trillions in derivatives will be engulfed in this “counterparty risk”!
Derivatives are a $1 quadrillion ticking time bomb, soaked in gasoline and sprinkled with gunpowder.  The volatility we are now seeing are the matches!  While we have had two “saves” where the central banks have stepped in and bought debt to steady the markets, the day will come when it does not work.  This game has gone on for a very long time and resulted in a mania where most all of the players are “long”.  The only potential new longs left are the central banks themselves who can only buy more debt with money created by debt.  The day will come when the ability to “save” is overcome.  Along with it will come the freedom of prices created by Mother Nature herself.  Stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities and yes, even silver and gold will finally break the chains of “algo mania”.
Finally, this you must understand, “power” is currently debt.  The control of debt is also the power of prices.  Once debt breaks loose and trades out of the control of central banks, these central banks will also lose the control to price everything else.  We have come very close twice in the last four trading days of the credit market control being broken.  Will loss of control be on the next convulsion?  Or the next?  I nor anyone else knows this answer, I do know the greatest margin call in all of history will be issued … and it cannot be met!
Bill Holter writes for Miles Franklin Gold