Will Russia’s Response to Washington’s Aggression Be to Release Black Swans?
Theo cựu phụ tá bộ kinh tế, đặc trách chính sách kinh tế quốc gia Mỹ Paul Craig Robert, Nga Putin có nhiều điều kiện đánh trả đũa NATO và Mỹ một cách kinh tế khiến Âu Mỹ chao đảo… Nhưng tại sao Nga- Putin không tiến hành thả những con “thiên nga đen” này ra?
Nhấn vào liên kết để nghe “By Paul Craig Roberts and King World News”
Theo những nhận định của các tay tổng giám đốc ngân hàng tài chính Âu Mỹ có liên quan dịch vụ tại Nga, họ đều có chung một qui kết như Paul Craig Roberts và nhiều nguồn khác rằng:
1- Nga có thể triệt hạ khối Âu Châu bằng cách tuyên bố ngưng bán hơi đốt ngay từ bây giờ, Hoặc ít nhất ĐÒI PHẢI TRẢ TIỀN HƠI ĐỐT bằng ĐỒNG RÚP của NGA, để cưỡng lại trận tấn công tiền tệ vào Nga hiện nay. Chắc chắn Âu Châu sẽ phải chịu nhượng bộ- Mùa Đông đang lạnh cóng tại các xứ Âu châu này. Nga không cần kéo dài việc ngưng hơi đốt, chỉ cần một mùa đông này là đủ cho dân Âu Châu sáng mắt. Không chỉ sưởi ấm mà còn kỹ nghệ giao thông trong mùa đông nữa!
2- Putin Nga, như Nhân Chủ đã trình bày, cũng có thể tạm đình chỉ trao đổi và chi trả tài chính, cũng như đình chỉ trao chuyển ngoại tệ. Phía chủ nợ sẽ sốt vó- (.If Russia moves to currency controls, the concomitant step would be to declare a moratorium on the payment of interest and principle on external debt. This in itself would deliver a massive shock to the western financial institutions holding the over 600 billion in debt/)
3- Nga còn giữ 2 ngàn tỉ trữ lượng Mỹ Kim, có thể bung ra mua lại tiền Rúp ào ạt.
4- Một trận thư hùng quân sự chăng? Rất khó, nhưng có thể xảy ra khi toan tính vượt tầm tay. Và chỉ cần xảy ra ở mức độ nhỏ nhất, toàn bộ Âu Châu sẽ khủng hoảng.
Hiện nay, không chỉ người dân Nga bị ảnh hưởng của vụ dầu hoả và tiền tệ Rúp xuống dốc. Mà ngay người dân các nước xuất cảng đến Nga củng bị đình trệ. Khi hàng giá cao, người mua sẽ lấy hàng ít lại, và người bán mất lời, thải công nhân v.v
Nhân Chủ đã từng trao đổi, Kinh tế là một vòng tròn. Bạn không thể cắt bất cứ đoạn nào để có lợi cho riêng bạn hay chỉ có hại cho kẻ đối nghịch. Tư bản không thể bóc lột mãi mà an nhàn tồn tại, lương thấp thì hàng hoá bán chậm, sản xuất ngưng trệ, phẩm chất hàng sẽ xuống cấp… đó là hiện trạng kinh tế thế giới hôm nay chúng ta đang chứng kiến. Nhưng với chính trị, tất cả an nguy công bằng của kinh tế không có giá trị! Mạng người còn rẻ hơn điếu xì gà hay ly rượu trong bữa tiệc của bọn này thì chúng lý gì đến những khía cạnh trên.
Thế mới thấy bọn chính trị nhà nước KHÔNG HỀ quan tâm đến hạnh phúc can nguy của người dân, hay “quyền lợi quốc gia” (sic) gì cả. Chúng chỉ muốn thực hiện những mộng ước điên rồ của riêng chúng!
Câu hỏi đặt ra là KHÔNG BIẾT BAO NHIÊU NGƯỜI, chuyên gia độc lập, chân tâm, tầm cỡ như Paul Craig Roberts, Gerald Celente, Mike Whitney bắn tiếng góp ý nhắc khéo Putin công khai nơi đài RT của Nga.… Nhưng Putin cứ lờ tít.. Không một hành động trả đũa tương xứng để bảo vệ vị thế nước Nga hay an nguy kinh tế của dân Nga! Hay chí ít cũng buộc Âu Mỹ khựng lại giảm cường độ tấn công kinh tế vào đời sống dân chúng Nga. ..Cũng vẫn chỉ thấy Putin tiếp tục lên TV “lên án” Âu Mỹ bằng mồm, và siết chặt an ninh nội địa lo sợ “cách mạng mầu”!!!
Giả sử Âu Mỹ nắm nguồn năng lượng sưởi ấm của dân Nga, chắc chắn chúng không từ chối bỏ qua cơ hội thực hiện cắt nguồn cung cấp vào mùa Đông này. 500 ngàn em bé Iraq thảm tử trong cuộc cấm vận của Mỹ, và con mẹ ngoại trưởng gốc Do thái Albright trả lời tỉnh bơ “tàn nhẫn nhưng việc đáng làm”.
Thằng chúa Javê của Do Thái trên trời chắc vui mừng cười ha hả. Chỉ có 500,000 trẻ em sao? Tên Javê này từng tiêu diệt hàng triệu mạng trẻ em khắp Ai Cập khi Nó vào giải cứu đám con riêng Do Thái của Nó!!!
Tàn sát là đạo đức truyền thống, bản sắc văn hoá của Chúa Trời Jê Hô Va và dân Chúa. Tất cả còn ghi rành rành trong kinh Cựu Ước!
Dân Chúa tại Hollywood đã tái dựng thành phim không biết bao nhiêu lần- lần này cực kỳ “vĩ đại” Exodus: Gods and Kings (2014) – trong đó vai chính là tài tử Christian Bale, nguời đóng vai Batman- đã phải lạnh nguời nhận xét về vai trò của mình: “ Môi Sen chắc chắn là một nguời đấu tranh cho tự do, … và cũng là một tên khủng bố, nhìn về phía kỷ cuơng đế quốc ai cập. Điều gì sẽ xảy ra cho Môi Sen nếu ông ta đến đây hôm nay? Máy bay Drones (của Mỹ) sẽ săn đuổi ông ta, đúng không nào? ( [He was] absolutely seen as a freedom fighter,” Bale said. “A terrorist, in terms of the Egyptian empire. What would happen to Moses if he arrived today? Drones would turn out after him, right?”)
Tóm lại, thái độ Nga và việc “không hành động” của (Putin) có nhiều dáng vẻ “đồng hành” với chủ định của Âu Mỹ. Nếu không thật sự Putin phải là một kẻ hèn tối dạ. Còn không, ắt là Putin đang luyện “quì hoa bảo điển” cho nuớc Nga, vung đao tự thiến để thành “Nga La Tư Bất Bại”, trong chiêu thế “bất chiến tự nhiên thành” của kỷ nguên 21!
Nói cách khác, dù thật sự bên trong “cung đình” có như thế nào, thì sự kiện khủng hoảng kinh tế (tiền tệ nhiên liệu) nhân tạo chính trị này, đã cho thấy rõ là bọn “băng hoại tâm thần” chính trị gia này đang diễn tuồng quốc gia tương tranh bằng chính an nguy hạnh phúc và đau khổ của chính nguời dân khắp nơi. Không chỉ dân Âu Châu, dân Mỹ, dân Nga trực tiếp ảnh huởng màn kịch khủng hoảng năng luợng và tiền tệ này, mà hầu như tất cả 7 tỉ nguời không ít thì nhiều. Có kẻ chết, mất việc, mất nhà, gia đình tan vỡ v.v nhưng tất cả sinh mạng nguời dân, với chúng nó, chỉ là những dụng cụ, con cờ chốt vô danh. “Lịch sử” chính qui, “văn minh” nhân loại vẫn chỉ ghi có vài tên tuổi như Putin, Obama v,v trong “biến cố lịch sử “này mà thôi.
In an interview with CNN, the president said economic sanctions on Moscow are working, crediting the American-led effort with a downturn in Russia’s economy and the decline of its currency. Even though Russia has yet to pull back from its aggressive posture in Ukraine, Mr. Obama denied that his policy has been ineffective, saying that his slow and steady course is better than the notion of “shooting first and thinking about it second.”
Is collapse of the ruble, more associated with the collapse of oil than sanctions, proof of anything? If so, what about the collapse of Ukraine? What about the collapse in European trade with Russia?
Does one measure pain in a one-sided manner? If Russia loses a leg and Europe an arm, is that winning or is it just plain stupid?
Let’s explore that question with a viewpoint from three sources:
- A Guardian article on the consequences of wrecking Russia’s economy.
- A Stratfor article “Viewing Russia from the Inside“
- A private email with a subject line of “Russia Under Attack” from David Lifschultz, CEO of Genoil to a small list of very prominent people.
Lifschultz forwarded his email to Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase; William Harrison, Former CEO of Chase; and Stephen Schwarzman, CEO and Co-Founder of Blackstone.
Wrecking Russia’s Economy Could Spell Disaster for the West
The Guardian proposes Wrecking Russia’s Economy Could be a Disaster for the West
Like a rudderless ship running out of fuel and buffeted in an icy storm, the Russian economy looks as if it is heading for a crash. All the graphs – the rouble-dollar rate, the slump in GDP, bank interest rates, oil prices – look like menacing icebergs. The only question seems to be how long the ship can stay afloat.
As for the west’s sanctions, they were introduced with one explicit aim – to force Putin to change tack in Ukraine. At least, that was the stated aim. But since the measures show no sign of having any effect on his thinking, and yet the west is considering even more sanctions, there is obviously another goal – to punish Putin for his actions, regardless of whether he changes his mind. Sadly, it is not Putin who feels this punishment. It is the Russian people.
The west imposed sanctions on Putin’s “cronies” and Russian banks because of the invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea; and Putin responded by banning the import of western foodstuffs.
To keep repeating the same mistake again and again and expecting different results is, as they say, a sign of madness. And if by doing so you punish only ordinary Russian people, then it is also cruel – and counterproductive. Twenty years ago the dream was to rescue the former communist world and bring prosperity and democracy to its people. What we are doing now is impoverishing and alienating the Russians.
We can, of course, stick to our guns and insist that “sanctions are having an effect”. But what will we gain if the only effect is to destroy the Russian economy?
The solution is clear. Abandon the missile shield. End the expansion of Nato. And think boldly about a new security arrangement for the whole of Europe – one that will bring Russia in rather than leaving it outside feeling vulnerable. If this were done, everything I know about Putin and Russia tells me the crisis over Ukraine would be solved – and the Russian economy would not end up being needlessly destroyed, causing woe and bitterness among its people. If it is not done, we will have to deal with a resentful Russia for decades – for Putin’s successors will also demand security.
Viewing Russia From the Inside
Stratfor writer George Friedman writes about Viewing Russia From the Inside.
Last week I flew into Moscow, arriving at 4:30 p.m. on Dec. 8. …
I thought the economic problems of Russia would be foremost on people’s minds. The plunge of the ruble, the decline in oil prices, a general slowdown in the economy and the effect of Western sanctions all appear in the West to be hammering the Russian economy. Yet this was not the conversation I was having. The decline in the ruble has affected foreign travel plans, but the public has only recently begun feeling the real impact of these factors, particularly through inflation.
The Russians pointed out that economic shambles was the norm for Russia, and prosperity the exception. There is always the expectation that prosperity will end and the normal constrictions of Russian poverty return.
Russians’ strength is that they can endure things that would break other nations. It was also pointed out that they tend to support the government regardless of competence when Russia feels threatened. Therefore, the Russians argued, no one should expect that sanctions, no matter how harsh, would cause Moscow to capitulate. Instead the Russians would respond with their own sanctions, which were not specified but which I assume would mean seizing the assets of Western companies in Russia and curtailing agricultural imports from Europe.
If this is so, then the Americans and Europeans are deluding themselves on the effects of sanctions. In general, I personally have little confidence in the use of sanctions. They are designed to cause pain that the West could not withstand. Applied to others, the effects may vary.
Reliable polling numbers show that President Vladimir Putin is still enormously popular.
I try not to be drawn into matters of right and wrong, not because I don’t believe there is a difference but because history is rarely decided by moral principles. I have understood the Russians’ view of Ukraine as a necessary strategic buffer and the idea that without it they would face a significant threat, if not now, then someday. The more important question was what will come next.
The Russians are stretched as it is. They must deal with Ukraine, and they must cope with the existing sanctions, however much they can endure economic problems. The West has the resources to deal with multiple crises. Russia needs to contain this crisis in Ukraine.
The Russians will settle for a degree of autonomy for Russians within parts of eastern Ukraine. How much autonomy, I do not know. They need a significant gesture to protect their interests and to affirm their significance. Their point that regional autonomy exists in many countries is persuasive. But history is about power, and the West is using its power to press Russia hard. But obviously, nothing is more dangerous than wounding a bear. Killing him is better, but killing Russia has not proved easy.
I came away with two senses. One was that Putin was more secure than I thought. In the scheme of things, that does not mean much. Presidents come and go. But it is a reminder that things that would bring down a Western leader may leave a Russian leader untouched. Second, the Russians do not plan a campaign of aggression. Here I am more troubled — not because they want to invade anyone, but because nations frequently are not aware of what is about to happen, and they might react in ways that will surprise them. That is the most dangerous thing about the situation. It is not what is intended, which seems genuinely benign. What is dangerous is the action that is unanticipated, both by others and by Russia.
At the same time, my general analysis remains intact. Whatever Russia might do elsewhere, Ukraine is of fundamental strategic importance to Russia. Even if the east received a degree of autonomy, Russia would remain deeply concerned about the relationship of the rest of Ukraine to the West. As difficult as this is for Westerners to fathom, Russian history is a tale of buffers. Buffer states save Russia from Western invaders. Russia wants an arrangement that leaves Ukraine at least neutral.
All of the good will in the world — and there is precious little of that — cannot solve the problem of two major countries that are compelled to protect their interests and in doing so must make the other feel threatened. I learned much in my visit. I did not learn how to solve this problem, save that at the very least each must understand the fears of the other, even if they can’t calm them.
Russia Under Attack
The subject matter of David Lifschultz’s letter to Jamie Dimon, William Harrison, Stephen Schwarzman, and two others is “Russia Under Attack”. Here are a few excerpts.
Stratfor as a close associate of the CIA doesn’t outline the implications of the steps that Russia will probably take so as to avoid a panic in the western financial markets. We will not avoid that.
It is important to note that this type of crisis is like the plague. It is contagious. A free falling ruble is essentially shutting out all exports from the EU and the west to Russia. If the currency goes down 2/3, then the price of western goods triples. Therefore, all EU exports to Russia and those of the rest of the west are stopped in their tracks. This Russian agricultural sanctions are as nothing compared to these new currency sanctions based on the concerted attack on the ruble. As the EU economies are in many areas in tribulation with 25% unemployment such as Spain, etc. and rising in most cases everywhere, the EU is suffering reciprocal damage for their attack on the ruble. The western attack on the ruble essentially blocks all imports into Russia forcing them into a German self-sufficiency as in 1933, or Russia under Stalin in 1937.
Russia has not been booted out of the SWIFT payment system as Iran as the international financial system will collapse if Russia unilaterally ceases to supply energy to Europe in the form of natural gas and oil. If Europe cannot buy Russian natural gas and oil, it will die. It will drag down the entire international financial system. This time as in Lehman the issuance of trillions of dollars of credits will not save it as that cannot overcome a shortage of natural resources. The supplies of natural gas and oil from the stans and central Asia between China and Russia are essentially under Russian control. If they decide to block it, that potentially could remove 24 million barrels a day from the world economy and huge amounts of natural gas if we add to the central Asian cutoff Russia itself. What will the EU and the United States do? Launch nuclear missiles at Russia?
If Russia moves to currency controls, the concomitant step would be to declare a moratorium on the payment of interest and principle on external debt. This in itself would deliver a massive shock to the western financial institutions holding the over 600 billion in debt. It must be remembered when this happened in 1998 during the Russian financial crisis, the financial weapon of mass destruction of Long Term Capital Management imploded with 1.3 trillion in derivative exposure. The quadrillion of derivatives according to Warren Buffett contain numerous financial weapons of mass destruction that can implode the entire western financial system. Stratfor does not want to talk about it but that is what is boiling under the surface. The west has raised the ante and risked their entire financial system in this crisis.
It is true that if Russia pulled the plug on the EU by stopping their natural gas and oil exports, it would have an adverse effect on Russia. But it would have a calamitous effect on the EU. It would trigger implosions in the quadrillion of derivatives. And Russian need only do this for three to six months to achieve the desired victorious counterattack as in war laying the west low as they are doing to them, and there is no doubt that this is war.
Economic war precedes military conflict as we saw when the United States, Britain and the Netherlands cut off 92% of the oil used by Japan through an embargo on July 25, 1941, which was a declaration of war on Japan as the west is declaring war on Russia. Anyone who does not realize this is acting like an Ostrich with his head in the sand. The west is hoping against hope that if they keep raising the ante when they have no cards, that Russia will throw their cards on the table. This will not happen. They also hope that they will be able to lower the temperature any time they want to avoid all out economic and or military conflict, but history shows that once the Pandora’s box is opened it is nearly impossible to put the evils back in the box.
The catalyst of the Ukrainian situation was nothing less squalid than the western financiers who were formerly looting Russia of hundreds of billion fearing that Putin’s move in the Ukraine would stop their looting operation in the Ukraine.
This fit into the Brzezinski goal of dismembering Russia, and the neocons allied with these London and New York financiers to move against Russia. Brzezinski was looking for his opening, and if it was not here, he would have found it elsewhere.
No one knows precisely what to expect if Obama keeps pressuring Russia more and more, but whatever it is, it will not be any good.
The entire US history of foreign policy meddling has been disaster after disaster.
An Incomplete History of US Foreign Policy Disasters
- War reparations imposed by the allies gave way to German hyperinflation and the rise of Hitler.
- In 1953 the US and UK orchestrated the Iranian coup d’état in an operation called “Operation Boot” in the UK and the “TPAJAX Project” in the US. This in turn led to the US backed Shah of Iran overthrown in 1979. In August 2013, 60 years after, the American Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) admitted that it was involved in both the planning and the execution of the coup, including the bribing of Iranian politicians, security and army high-ranking officials, as well as pro-coup propaganda. The CIA is quoted acknowledging the coup was carried out “under CIA direction” and “as an act of U.S. foreign policy, conceived and approved at the highest levels of government.”
- The War in Vietnam started with an outright lie from president Lyndon B. Johnson regarding the Gulf of Tonkin Incident. A document declassified in 2005 shows the US fired first, on North Vietnam. In a second episode, the US fired on “Tonkin ghosts” (false radar images) and not actual torpedo boats as claimed.
- It’s pretty clear the US helped foment the overthrow of Ukraine’s president Viktor Yanukovych, but the US will probably will not admit that for another 30 years.
- Bush’s lies led us to invade Iraq with disastrous consequences including the evolution of ISIS.
- Finally, Bin Laden’s number one reason for the attack on the US was because the US had troops on sacred Arab soil.
Poking Sticks at Bears and Hornets
The US seldom if ever views things through the eyes of others. From US drone policy, to torture, to CIA-sponsored coups, to inane wars based on lies, we make mistake after mistake.
And yet, we keep poking sticks at bears and hornets.
In the case of Russia, I do not know how Putin will respond if we increase pressure.
But I do know that sanctions are war. And they don’t do any good. 52 years of silly sanctions on Cuba with zero results are proof enough. (For discussion, please see Pass the Cigars: US Lifts Some Restrictions on Cuba; Why Now?)
As I have noted before, sanctions are a negative sum game. The very best the US can expect out of sanctions on Russia are as follows:
- Deeper European recession
- Political battles with various European leaders
- Loss of potential profit by US multinational corporations
- Ukraine in need of bigger bailouts
- Russia strengthens ties with China at expense of US and Europe
- Increasing resentment of Russian citizens toward the US, some of which may take hostile actions against the US, US citizens, or US corporate interests
Unfortunately, that is the very best that can happen!
Laughably, president Obama calls that “winning” on the basis Russia is suffering more than Europe.
With that ridiculous definition, let’s return to the questions I asked at the outset:
Does one measure pain in a one-sided manner? If Russia loses a leg and Europe an arm, is that winning or is it just plain stupid?
It’s difficult to contemplate the worst that could happen, but David Lifschultz mentioned one possibility in his letter to various CEOs: The wrong reaction could “trigger implosions in the quadrillion of derivatives“.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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